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More than 100 industry figures attended ORDE Financial’s ‘Building Futures’ series, where new research commissioned by the non-bank was presented by demographer Bernard Salt AM.
Salt analysed both historic and forward-looking data on Australia’s workforce and population trends and concluded: “You are in the right place, at the right time, with the demographic wind in your sails.”
Following Salt’s keynote speech was a panel with ORDE Financial chief operating officer Ryan Harkness, chief lending officer Grant Smith, and chief marketing officer Joanne Thrift.
The event was held in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane.
The rise of the business borrower
One central theme of the data was the growing pool of business owner borrowers across different sectors.
Salt said structural changes in the workforce are reshaping the commercial lending landscape, with professional and highly skilled roles expanding rapidly.
Over the 25 years to November 2025, the total workforce grew by 38 per cent. Over the same period, the trades workforce increased by 50 per cent and the professional workforce by 156 per cent.
In 1995, skill level 4 roles – including waiters, receptionists, and office assistants – accounted for 27 per cent of the workforce – the largest segment under Australian Bureau of Statistics classifications. By 2025, skill level 1 roles – covering doctors, engineers, and teachers – represented 36 per cent of workers, up from 25 per cent three decades earlier.
Between 2019 and 2025, the fastest-growing occupations included software developers, up 47 per cent to 201,000 roles, and aged and disabled carers, up 63 per cent to 348,000. Over the same period, bank workers fell by 50 per cent to 28,000, while information officers and livestock workers also declined.
“The feeding zone for a broker is the people who run a business,” said Salt.
“Fifteen per cent of the workforce is now a business owner manager. That is a target for you to sell to facilitate a business loan.”
Smith said the data pointed to a sustained opportunity in commercial lending.
“There’s a great story here for brokers in this growth of the business owner borrower,” he said.
“There are huge signs of economic prosperity for Australia over the next 10 years, and that’s going to lead to high business confidence and high business investment.
“For a business owner, a growing sector needs more access to credit to meet their personal or business ambitions.”
Population growth and diversification
Population growth, and its changing composition, was also identified as a key driver of borrowing.
By 2024, 32 per cent of Australia’s population was foreign-born, compared with 15 per cent in the US, 17 per cent in the UK, and 28 per cent in New Zealand. While the UK remains a major source country, migration from India, the Philippines, Nepal, and Pakistan is increasing.
“We all know population growth drives property demand and house prices, and looking at the next 10 years, thinking about three and a half to four million additional Australians is a big number,” Harkness said.
“The key with immigrants is they come in with immediate housing needs, they may come in and rent, but a few years after, they’ll be looking for financial support. That means it’s a greater share of market value for brokers.”
Thrift said migration would influence not only the volume of housing demand, but its form.
“It’s going to shape the types of housing that we’ll be building, and ultimately, the sorts of businesses that will be emerging and evolving in Australia,” she said.
Salt cited buyer preferences among Indian migrants as an example.
“Indians who are looking to buy, they want the two-storey, three to four bedroom home, but they want it with a tweak,” he said.
“They want the second master bedroom with its second ensuite, because their mum and dad come out from India and visit, not for two or three days, for three months at a time.
“Builders say, no worries, I can tweak my product to deliver precisely what you want, brokers can be receptive to this as well.”
Thrift added that brokers may need to reassess their service models.
“I think it just needs to be more inclusive,” she said.
“Service more borrowers with different circumstances. Service borrowers who speak different languages and come from different communities.
“When you’re immigrating into Australia, and you’re not familiar with the financial system, I think it is obviously super important that a broker helps you through that, and a broker who knows how to handle the situation.”
Millennials and the ‘forever home’
Salt also pointed to a generational transition as Millennials move into their 40s and upgrade to long-term family homes.
As Baby Boomers age and downsize, he said a “great wealth transfer” is underway.
“Imagine this, that you’re a Millennial couple, you’re 42, and you’ve got two or three kids, you’re living in Bondi. You really want your forever home, but you can’t afford it. That’s where Mum and Dad might step in,” he said.
Thrift cited estimates of $5.4 trillion expected to transfer between generations over the next two decades.
“That’s absolutely going to lift lending and borrower capacity,” she said.
Harkness said around 7 million Millennials are entering their 40s, representing roughly a quarter of the population.
“When I think about buying a forever home in your 40s, you’re thinking about a house where your kids are going to spend the majority of their life,” he said.
“It’s a highly stressful period. It’s a highly emotional period. And so therefore, I just think this is a significant opportunity for brokers to make a difference.”
Growing complexity
Finally, speakers highlighted the increasing complexity of borrower circumstances, particularly income structures.
“With all of this added complexity and this variation in the way people earn an income, borrowers will need the support of brokers in a very high-touch way,” Thrift said.
Harkness said growth in sectors such as healthcare and aged care – a surging sector in recent years – was contributing to more complex lending scenarios.
“They’ve all got complex income structures, whether it’s casual work, shift work, two roles,” he said.
“Then you start thinking about software developers… they’re looking to do contract work, cyber is looking the exact same way. People are becoming experts and helping multiple companies. So complex income is actually going to become more significant in this market.”
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