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The latest Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending survey from Agile Market Intelligence has indicated that several service-based industries are showing renewed borrowing appetite, while demand from trade and production sectors remains subdued.
The survey monitors forecast commercial loan demand across different industries over the next three months, based on feedback from active commercial brokers.
According to the results, real estate, utilities, and financial and insurance services are among the industries recovering after demand dips late last year.
In contrast, sectors such as mining, manufacturing, and arts and recreation are expected to see lower borrowing activity in the near term.
To calculate the market demand index, Agile Market Intelligence subtracts the proportion of brokers expecting decreased demand over the next three months from those expecting increased demand.
The results highlight both industries with the strongest overall demand and those showing improving momentum.
Real estate leads demand outlook
Real estate recorded the highest demand index score at +47, rebounding strongly after a dip in October 2025 and continuing a positive upward trend.
The survey found that a number of industries are recovering from significant demand losses recorded in October and November 2025, including real estate, utilities, financial and insurance services, and media and telecommunications.
Healthcare also emerged as one of the strongest sectors, with a demand index score of +40. While this represents a slight decline from November 2025 levels, brokers continue to report solid borrowing appetite from the sector.
Financial and insurance services were also identified as having a strong demand outlook, reinforcing the broader trend toward recovery in service-driven industries.
While media and telecommunications recorded the lowest positive demand index among the recovering sectors at +8, the survey indicated that demand in the industry is gradually gaining traction.
“We can see demand gaining traction in industries which fluctuated and dipped last year,” said Michael Johnson, director at Agile Market Intelligence.
“Implying that these sectors have recovered and are potentially looking to expand their businesses now in 2026.”
Weak demand forecast for arts and recreation
At the other end of the spectrum, brokers expect the least borrowing demand from arts and recreation, which recorded the lowest market demand forecast at -20.
The sector has experienced a sharp decline from the previous month and has historically shown volatile demand patterns, according to the survey.
Accommodation and food services, manufacturing, and arts and recreation recorded the steepest declines in demand expectations since November 2025.
Other consumer-facing and discretionary industries are also beginning the year with weaker outlooks. Retail trade recorded the second-lowest demand forecast at 0, while accommodation and food services (+6), manufacturing (+11), and mining (+14) all remain in positive territory, but have seen substantial declines compared to their November scores.
Commercial lending a mixed picture
This latest commercial lending survey comes amid a mixed picture for SME lending.
New data from digital non-bank lender OnDeck has indicated that SME activity is returning to growth, with figures showing a rise in borrowing for expansion rather than short-term survival.
Other surveys indicate a more subdued outlook. Data from non-bank lender Banjo Loans showed borrowing activity among small businesses softening toward the end of the calendar year, as ongoing uncertainty around inflation and interest rates weighed on decision making.
Additionally, research undertaken in December by non-bank lender Prospa and researchers YouGov found that shrinking cash reserves and declining revenue were putting small businesses under pressure.
These conditions may be prompting some businesses to delay major investment decisions, according to a separate national survey by CreditorWatch. However, the same survey found that 82 per cent of businesses still plan to invest over the next 12 months.
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