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The Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending report, conducted by Agile Market Intelligence in partnership with the Commercial & Asset Finance Brokers Association (CAFBA), has revealed that commercial brokers expect demand for business loans and commercial mortgages to climb through the first quarter of 2026.
The latest edition, conducted between 1 and 25 January 2026, captured the experiences of 402 mortgage, finance, and commercial brokers to calculate an index of market demand and sentiment.
According to the Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending findings, the outlook for financing requirements is turning increasingly bullish for the new year. Measured by subtracting the share of brokers forecasting a decline in demand from those expecting an increase, the market demand index for business loans rose to +53 in December, continuing the steadily increasing positive trend reported over the past few months.
Similarly, brokers expect increasing demand for commercial mortgages in the next three months, continuing its upward trajectory, with an index of +42, marking a recovery following a slight dip in late 2025.
While a strong appetite remains for equipment or asset finance (+36), the data showed a marginal cooling in this segment compared to the previous month.
The figures imply that while various financing types remain in demand, there is a significant shift toward business-specific credit lines – such as secured and unsecured business loans – to navigate the current environment.
Macro concerns and business health
Looking at their own business health, brokers also remain optimistic.
While one in two brokers remains worried about economic disruptions and regulatory impacts, the data suggests a trend of adaptation. Concern regarding regulations dropped significantly from a peak of 63 per cent in August 2025 to 50 per cent in December, implying that the implementation of new legislation is being met with increased broker preparedness.
Conversely, internal business health markers show a slight shift in pressure. Cash flow for staff and creditors was the only factor to see an increase in the share of worried brokers, now concerning over one in four (28 per cent).
Michael Johnson, director at Agile Market Intelligence, noted the resilience in the sector: “The data suggests that brokers have planned accordingly for the changes coming in 2026. While factors out of their control – like market movements and lender performance – remain the most worrisome, there is a clear sense of confidence in their ability to tackle these challenges.”
The Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending report echoes findings in other surveys that show increasing business demand for finance.
A recent Business Sentiment Survey of more than 1,000 decision-makers conducted by financial analysis company CreditorWatch found that more than eight in 10 businesses plan to invest over the next 12 months.
Despite a backdrop of economic uncertainty, 82 per cent of Australian businesses plan to invest over the next 12 months, with a primary focus on technology, marketing, and product innovation.
Confidence remained high, CreditorWatch found, as 76 per cent of leaders expressed optimism about future growth and are actively pursuing domestic expansion. This positive sentiment was particularly strong in the financial and insurance sectors, as well as among younger businesses, which are outpacing older firms in their drive to scale locally and internationally.
However, this optimism has been tempered by a clear “wait-and-see” approach, with 63 per cent of businesses postponing major investments until economic conditions stabilise.
Rising costs and shifting customer behaviours, such as tighter budgets and longer payment terms, continue to act as significant headwinds, especially in the construction sector. This caution is also reflected in the labour market, where 43 per cent of leaders have no plans to hire, and those who do are increasingly leaning toward casual or short-term contractors over permanent staff to maintain flexibility.
[Related: SME investment intent remains strong despite economic uncertainty]