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According to the latest Broker Pulse: Commercial Lending report from Agile Market Intelligence, brokers are reporting the most positive outlook on their clients’ business health in months, signalling a potential turning point for the economy.
The report, which gauges commercial finance broker sentiment to measure confidence levels, revealed key business fundamentals have decisively shifted into positive territory after being negative last year.
This surge in confidence is closely tied to businesses moving from survival mode to planning for future growth.
Between July 2024 and July 2025, brokers reported dramatic improvements across the board:
- Revenue outlook: Climbed from negative 15 basis points to 28 bps.
- Cash flow outlook: Climbed from negative 28 bps to 18 bps.
- Employee headcount: Climbed from negative 32 bps to 7 bps.
- Financing requirements: Climbed from 15 bps to 41 bps.
“The turnaround in cash flow expectations is telling us that businesses are moving beyond just managing through uncertainty to actually seeing light at the end of the tunnel,” said Agile Market Intelligence director Michael Johnson
Leading this surge in optimism were the agriculture and wholesale trade industries. Each saw an increase in demand from borrowers.
As of June, just 24 per cent of brokers expected agriculture lending demand to increase. Now 43 per cent agree.
The bounce back of these “traditional” industries highlighted a healing economy. Business owners are being rewarded after years of strain.
“Agriculture and wholesale trade are emerging as the clear bright spots, showing how broker expectations can shift quickly when confidence takes hold in key sectors,” Johnson added.
Perhaps the most encouraging sign from the data is the market stabilisation. For the first time, no industry recorded negative demand expectations.
This convergence of improving client health and rebalancing demand suggests the commercial lending market is entering a new, more stable phase.
“We’re witnessing a healthy maturation in the commercial lending market where unrealistic expectations are giving way to sustainable growth patterns,” said Johnson.
This renewed optimism among brokers suggests that improved access to finance is directly fuelling a surge in confidence, setting the stage for a more stable period of economic growth.
[Related: Business lending growth continues to outpace residential]
