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The vast majority of brokers expect first home buyer demand to increase, according to Agile Market Intelligence research, as the expanded First Home Guarantee scheme drives market optimism.
Nearly nine in 10 brokers (88 per cent) expect first home buyer demand to rise, making it the most bullish segment by at least 34 percentage points.
The data, drawn from more than 300 brokers in October, comes after the Home Guarantee Scheme expansion launched on 1 October, letting eligible first home buyers purchase a home with just a 5 per cent deposit.
High levels of broker optimism align with earlier Agile Market Intelligence research that showed 16 per cent of eligible buyers accelerating their purchase plans specifically due to the policy change, with 25 per cent planning to use the scheme within two years.
“When our Consumer Pulse survey showed 16 per cent of eligible buyers accelerating their plans, it was a leading indicator,” Agile Market Intelligence director Michael Johnson said.
“Now brokers are seeing that demand materialise in their pipelines. Brokers who have invested in effectively serving first home buyers ahead of the October launch are likely to capture a disproportionate share, while those still building that competency risk missing a significant wave of activity.”
Changes to the Home Guarantee Scheme should create opportunities for lenders that can process applications and target an expanding market segment.
The expanded scheme should also benefit buyers looking to enter the property market, with lower deposit barriers removing a key constraint.
However, while brokers have acknowledged that lower barriers to entry should help buyers save tens of thousands upfront, several have said that it does not solve long-term affordability issues, with risks of inflated house prices, unsustainable repayments, and higher stamp duty costs.
Association leaders, including the Finance Brokers Association of Australia (FBAA) and Mortgage and Finance Association of Australia (MFAA), have also warned that without broader reforms to boost housing supply, the scheme risks being a short-term political win that benefits sellers more than buyers.
Rate cuts spur refi sentiment
Agile Market Intelligence research also found that more than half of brokers (54 per cent) expect refinancing demand to increase in the coming months, with borrowers positioning themselves ahead of potential Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts rather than waiting for relief.
Refinancing sentiment is the second-strongest across all segments measured, trailing only first home buyers in terms of growth expectations.
In contrast, confidence in investment property lending is highly polarised among brokers, with expectations split almost evenly that investor lending will increase (48 per cent) or remain steady (46 per cent).
The rise in refinancing appetite comes as major banks remain divided on the timing of rate cuts.
Higher-than-expected unemployment data has also clouded the outlook for future interest rate policy.
“The divergent forecasts from major banks, spanning November 2025 to mid-2026, have created a window where taking action today delivers more certainty than hoping for cuts tomorrow,” Johnson commented.
“Lenders who can offer compelling switching incentives and fast turnarounds are winning share, while those relying on loyalty or expecting borrowers to wait for rate relief are facing material attrition in their books.”
[Related: Home Guarantee Scheme expansion kicks off: Unpacking the changes]
