Home ownership intent polarises across states as older Australians walk away

New data from research group Agile Market Intelligence has revealed that while there is a growing proportion of consumers intending to buy a home in the next year, a growing proportion of consumers feel that they are not financially ready to do so, while around a fifth think interest rates and/or property prices are too high.

The Consumer Pulse survey, conducted between October and December 2025, found that 17 per cent of non-home owners are planning to buy within the next 12 months, a slight increase from 16 per cent in the previous quarter.

Around 31 per cent said they wanted to buy a home, but weren’t financially ready to do it, while 17 per cent said they wanted to get onto the market, but were being priced out by interest rates and/or property prices.

Meanwhile, the proportion of Australians saying they do not want to buy a home at all climbed to 36 per cent, up 6 percentage points on the previous quarter, highlighting a widening divide in sentiment.

Home buying sentiment is also diverging across the country, according to Consumer Pulse.

Those in Victoria recorded the highest buying intent among non-home owners, at 22 per cent.

Queensland also posted strong growth, with intent rising 3 percentage points from the previous quarter, to 15 per cent.

NSW was more polarised, with buying intent nudging up from 16 to 17 per cent, while those with no intention to buy increased from 27 in Q3 to 30 per cent in Q4.

By contrast, South Australia experienced the sharpest decline in confidence, with the proportion of consumers saying they had no intention to pay soaring 17 percentage points to 48 per cent, suggesting significant affordability pressures or local economic uncertainty.

Michael Johnson, director at Agile Market Intelligence, commented: “South Australia’s numbers are alarming, highlighting a fundamental shift in housing sentiment. Queensland is the outlier, showing rising intent while keeping rejection rates relatively stable.

“Victoria and NSW are polarising between intent and rejection, efficiently sorting households into buyers and long-term renters.”

The survey also highlights a stark generational split.

Younger adults (those aged 18–34) were found to have the highest intent to purchase at 23 per cent, maintaining a relatively stable level from the previous quarter. Yet rejection rates among this cohort also increased slightly by 3 percentage points, reflecting the ongoing pressures of affordability and high deposit requirements.

Older Australians, particularly those aged 55 and over, are increasingly stepping away from home ownership.

Almost seven in 10 (69 per cent) told Consumer Pulse they do not plan to buy a home, up 7 percentage points from the previous quarter.

While a small minority of this cohort – 9 per cent – still intend to purchase in the next year, this represents almost double the level seen in Q3, showing that a few older Australians are still exploring options despite rising rejection overall.

“Households who were previously saying, ‘I want to buy but can’t,’ are now making definitive choices,” Johnson explained.

“Some are finding pathways to purchase, while others are walking away entirely. The 35–54 age group is largely in a wait-and-see position, making only minor shifts in intent, whereas younger Australians are pushing ahead and older Australians are increasingly accepting long-term renting as the reality.”

The survey also shows that the “middle ground” – those who want to buy, but face barriers – has shrunk to 48 per cent of respondents, down 6 percentage points from the previous quarter. This reflects a significant shift in consumer mindset, as Australians are moving toward either committing to a purchase or fully exiting the ownership market.

The research, based on 3,333 non-home owners among 7,834 surveyed Australians, aims to provide brokers and lenders with critical insight into where demand is solidifying and where households are leaving the market entirely.

With property prices having increased by around 8 per cent in 2025 and growing expectations that interest rates may rise in early 2026, home buying sentiment is rapidly changing.

The federal government has launched a range of initiatives to try and support more home buyers into market, including the expanded 5 per cent Deposit Scheme and the Help to Buy shared equity scheme, and recently announced a $10 billion investment to bring online 100,000 homes for first home buyers.

[Related: Government announces new First Home Supply program]