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Housing market sees modest April gains amid election uncertainty

Housing market sees modest April gains amid election uncertainty
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Australia’s housing market gained in April, but rising uncertainty around interest rates and the election has weighed on buyer sentiment.

Cotality’s (formerly CoreLogic) national Home Value Index recorded a third consecutive month of growth in April, with dwelling values rising 0.3 per cent to reach a new record high. The increase has added approximately $2,720 to the median value of an Australian dwelling over the month.

Every capital city recorded a lift in home values, ranging from a 1.1 per cent gain in Darwin to a 0.2 per cent rise in Sydney and Melbourne. Despite this broad-based growth, the pace of value increases slowed slightly from March’s 0.4 per cent rise, with weaker sentiment and auction clearance rates evident throughout the month.

“The rate cut in February supported an upwards inflection in housing market conditions, but the positive influence from lower rates seems to be losing some potency,” said Tim Lawless, Cotality’s research director.

“At the same time, household confidence slipped in April, with the US’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements and the upcoming federal election causing uncertainty. It is likely this may be causing some buyers and sellers to delay their decisions.”

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Lawless said these uncertainties are more pronounced in sales and listings volumes than in home values – a trend intensified by the extended ‘super break’ many Australians took between the Easter and ANZAC Day public holidays.

This slowdown was reflected in auction and new listing numbers. In the week ending 20 April, just 644 auctions were held across the combined capitals – the lowest Easter auction week since 2019 – when the market was near a cyclical low and housing policy debates dominated the federal election campaign.

New listings also dropped to their lowest level for this time of year since 2019, with just 19,650 properties listed for sale across the combined capitals over the four weeks to 27 April.

“With further rate cuts likely as soon as May 20th, and a level of certainty returning to the market after the federal election on May 3rd, we expect a further modest rise in values for 2025,” said Lawless.

While housing values are on the rise overall, not all markets have reached new record highs, according to the index.

Only the mid-sized capitals are at their peak levels. Sydney’s values remain 1.1 per cent below their September 2024 high. Melbourne is down 5.4 per cent from its 2022 peak. Hobart values are 11.1 per cent below their highest point, while Darwin and the ACT are down 2.7 per cent and 6.4 per cent, respectively.

The annual pace of gains slowed to 3.2 per cent nationally in April, the weakest annual rise since the 12 months ending August 2023.

This decline reflected the sluggish growth seen from mid-2024 through early 2025, which included a period of falling values over the three months ending January 2025. Monthly growth turned positive in February, following a 25-bp cut to the cash rate.

“Given the softer trajectory of growth through last year, it’s likely the annual pace of gains will continue to soften over the coming months, despite the positive inflection in values since February,” Lawless said.

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