iscover 
Speaking from ongoing conversations with thousands of NAB customers, Irvine said the most affected sectors include transport, freight, agriculture, and businesses operating in regional communities.
“Fuel costs are creating real cash flow stress,” Irvine said.
“The challenge is that many businesses are paid later, so there is a real liquidity issue as costs rise quickly.”
Regional sectors feeling the pain
Irvine said the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and its broader impacts are already changing business behaviour, particularly in fuel-reliant industries.
The impact is especially pronounced in agriculture, where diesel is a critical input during key stages of the farming cycle.
“For an activity like sowing, many farms need 30,000 to 50,000 litres of diesel,” Irvine said.
“That translates into $30,000 to $50,000 more to sow a crop than it would have cost just a few weeks ago.”
Alongside rising fuel costs, Irvine said farmers are also facing increasing pressure from fertiliser supply and pricing, with Australia heavily reliant on imports.
Freight and haulage operators, transport businesses, and regional operators travelling long distances to service clients are also among the most exposed, with recent research pointing to a heightened risk of insolvency across these sectors.
Uncertainty and cash flow
While rising costs are a concern, Irvine said uncertainty is having an equally significant impact on business confidence.
“It’s not just the price of fuel that’s hurting. It’s also the uncertainty around supply,” he said.
“Consumers are nervous. Businesses are nervous. People are worried about how bad this is going to get and how long it’s going to last.”
Irvine said NAB is already seeing early signs of more cautious behaviour, with businesses protecting cash flow, tightening spending, and focusing on short-term planning.
“There’s a disconnect at the moment between confidence and conditions,” he said.
“We’re not yet seeing the full impact in the data, but we hear it every day when we speak to customers and see how mindsets are shifting.”
Additional pressures include outstanding debts to the Australian Tax Office (ATO) and the upcoming changes to Payday Super later this year.
Despite this uncertainty, brokers report that demand for credit has not weakened.
Instead, businesses are increasingly turning to finance as a way to stabilise operations and maintain resilience in an uncertain economic environment.
Wake-up call
Irvine added that while NAB economists are forecasting a slowdown in growth, they are not currently predicting a recession.
“That risk does rise the longer fuel prices stay elevated and the longer major supply routes remain disrupted,” he said.
Last week, the federal government announced a package of financial support measures, including a temporary halving of the fuel excise on petrol and diesel, alongside $1 billion in new interest-free loans.
Announcing the measures, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Australia must reduce its reliance on global supply chains.
“We do not need to wait for this global crisis to be over, to learn its lessons,” Albanese said.
“We must act now to keep jobs here and create new ones, to strengthen our economic sovereignty, our energy security and our national resilience... so that Australia is not always the last link in the global supply chain, that instead we stand on our own two feet.”
Irvine echoed the need for structural reform, warning that the current fuel shock highlights deeper vulnerabilities in Australia’s energy system.
“We cannot waste the crisis,” he said.
“Global disruptions are becoming more frequent, and Australia is far too exposed if we only focus on short-term fixes.
“The more productive and resilient we are, the more secure our country is when the next shock hits.
“In a volatile world, Australia needs to build out its sovereign capability.”
[Related: RLO exemption extended as fuel pressures mount]
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